Reality Starts Coloring CNN’s Election Map With A Shade Of Pessimism For Clinton
The polls were wrong because ...
by Jack Davis November 4, 2016 at 11:20am
Faced with the choice of being laughably behind the news or admitting the Electoral College is slipping away from Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton’s grasp, CNN revised its Electoral College map Friday to reflect the fact Clinton does not have enough support locked up to win the election.
A candidate needs to win 270 electoral votes to win Tuesday’s election, regardless of the popular vote totals.
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CNN announced Friday that it had made four changes to its map. Those changes were:
Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from “battleground” to “lean Republican;”
New Hampshire from “lean Democrat” to “battleground;”
Ohio from “battleground” to “lean Republican;”
Utah from “battleground” to “lean Republican.”
CNN’s shift lags behind many polls that, for the past week, have shown Trump winning Ohio and likely to win Utah.
However, CNN’s count still gives Clinton 268 electoral votes against 204 that are solidly in the pocket of Republican nominee Donald Trump.
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According to CNN’s estimates, 66 electoral votes remain in play in states that include Arizona, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire and North Carolina.
Once again, CNN projects Trump to do worse than do most polls. Florida is the only state listed in which Trump does not currently lead, according to Real Clear Politics, which averages poll results. In Florida, where polling has been split, Real Clear Politics gives Clinton a lead of 1.2 percent over Trump.
Despite all the statistics, in the end the election comes down to people.
Nigel Farage, who led the successful Brexit campaign in Britain, said all the numbers could add up to nothing because Trump is tapping people the pollsters have ignored.
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“On the day of the vote, there was an opinion poll that put us 10 points behind, but we won,” Farage said of the Brexit vote.
The polls were wrong because those who don’t usually voted did so, he said.
“Modern polling companies cannot get to non-voters who are re-entering the system. The question is, is Trump reaching non-voters? I’m told that new registration of voters is quite high. It could be that Hillary’s ahead, but maybe by not so much,” he said.
